In our last “Market Watch” we shared our opinion that there's a significantly positive shift going on in the local real estate market. However, we did it with some trepidation because there were few, if any, other voices echoing our sentiments and being out there in front can be uncomfortable – even when you think you’re right.
The good news is that several of the more respected providers of real estate statistics and analysis are beginning to express similar thoughts. Granted, they are generally a bit more reserved than we are in our evaluation of the situation but, then again, their comments are directed at the valley-wide marketplace and our energies are focused primarily on the Northeast Valley and specifically on McDowell Mountain Ranch.
As Catherine Reagor, reporter for the Arizona Republic, indicated in a recent column several key housing indices are now showing that the market could be poised to start a slow rebound.
In addition, Mike Orr, the wizard who produces the Cromford Report and one of the most reliable sources of real estate data in the valley, says that “most of the key indicators that were negative at the end of last year's second quarter are now showing positive signs”. He specifically cited the supply of homes for sale which has been falling since late November.
He‘s also encouraged by the dramatic increase in the number of pending listings. This is a precursor to closed sales and the primary indicator of growing buyer interest. His enthusiasmertainly seems justified. There are almost 13,000 pending right now and there were only 8,695 at the beginning of January.
Sadly, the only market gauge that he says hasn’t turned positive yet is the sales prices. However, even there he did say that there are indications that housing prices could start to climb during the next six to nine months.
Tom Ruff of Information Market, another Phoenix real-estate data firm, shares Mike's opinion. He says that "The numbers that made us pessimistic last July are the same numbers that are now making me optimistic,"
By the way, what you may find particularly interesting was Mike Orr’s response when I asked him if he had any idea why we seemed to be out performing the rest of the valley. His answer was that “Each day that goes by suggests we are going to have a significant recovery this year and I believe the $400K to $600K price range is well placed [to profit from those improvements].
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